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研究 风化的波动

美国金融大起大落的大数据.S. 个人

在这份首份报告中, researchers from the 澳博官方网站app 研究所 analyzed proprietary data from 澳博官方网站app & Co. to determine how income and consumption fluctuate on a monthly and a yearly basis.

To draw conclusions about fluctuations in earning and spending amongst U.S. individuals, our findings are summarized into three key points…

找到一个: 个人 experienced high levels of income volatility and higher levels of consumption volatility across the income spectrum.

Volatility was even greater on a month-to-month basis than on a year-to-year basis. The highest income earners experienced as much volatility in both income and consumption as the lowest income earners. Some of the drivers of monthly volatility included months with five Fridays, 雇员可以得到三次工资而不是两次, 税单和退税, 还有年终购物季.

发现二: 收入 and consumption changes did not move in tandem; there was only a slightly positive correlation between changes in income and changes in consumption between 2013 and 2014. Three behavioral groupings describe the link between income and consumption changes.

收入 and consumption changes did not move in tandem; there was only a slightly positive correlation between changes in income and changes in consumption between 2013 and 2014. Three behavioral groupings describe the link between income and consumption changes.

发现三: The typical individual did not have a sufficient financial buffer to weather the degree of income and consumption volatility that we observed in our data.

The typical individual did not have a sufficient financial buffer to weather the degree of income and consumption volatility that we observed in our data.

The typical household did not maintain enough liquid savings that could be accessed immediately in the event of a large, unexpected 费用 sustained at the same time as a loss in income. While many in the field of consumer finance have long advised that consumers maintain an emergency fund, our research into income and consumption volatility shows that a financial buffer is a more important consideration for individuals across the entire income spectrum than is generally understood. We find that not only was volatility high for income and consumption, but also changes in income and consumption did not move in tandem. This creates the risk that people might experience a negative swing in income at the same time that they incur a large, 潜在的意想不到的, 费用. 根据我们的发现, we estimate that a typical middle–income household needed approximately $4,800 in liquid assets — roughly 14% of annual income after taxes — to have sustained the observed monthly fluctuations in income and spending but they had only $3,000. 要求的流动资产水平, 然而, 在很大程度上对五分之一的大多数人来说是不可用的, 除了高收入者.

结论

我们从这些早期的发现中得出结论, 考虑到金融生活的嘈杂和不可预测, most individuals would benefit from innovative tools to better understand and manage their bottom line. These tools could include analytical platforms that help people track their earning and spending patterns as well as the sources, 级, 以及收入和消费波动的时机. 除了, 金融服务提供商, employers and policy makers can help individuals reduce and manage volatility, 更好地匹配收入和消费的变化, 或者好好利用这些波动来帮助他们省钱. Potential solutions include new insurance and credit products to help smooth income and spending; technical solutions, such as making deposited funds more immediately available to banking customers; and products or automated transfers that allow people to save during naturally occurring upswings in income, 比如五个星期五和退税季节.

作者

法雷尔

开国和前总统 & 首席执行官